How About Those Frogs

Among family a common refrain heard is “You can’t bring back the good old days but Pabst brought back the beer.”

The 2011 Rose Bowl game on New Years Day returned me to those days of yesteryear to my childhood over a half century ago.

Two years ago I posted on “the most exciting football game I ever saw” (Texas v. Texas Tech). Saturday’s Rose Bowl game (T C U v Wisconsin) was a great if not Classic football game with pretty evenly matched teams but more than exciting it was a blast to the past. In my Happy Days are Here Again post, I said:

“Growing up in the fifties my home town TCU Horned Frogs won 3 Southwest Conference Championships and were consistently ranked nationally despite being a private Church school.”

Thus on this New Years Day my heart was a little lighter thinking of things past and the Horned Frogs return to greatness. To College football fans the story of the non BCS Frogs who are undefeated this season and truly the Cinderella team is well known. I won’t drill into it.

Just suffice to say that the Fort Worth University has a grand tradition and despite the on going National Playoff BCS controversy and the demise of the once great Texas Football League, aka the Southwest Conference (covered in other postings, here, here, and here) WE’RE BACK!

To paraphrase, You can take the boy out of his hometown but you can’t take the hometown out of the boy.

Double D, Dusty & Chris

Front Bar – Another delay in posting on 2011 Redistricting; I have wanted to post on the Governor’s appointment of Dusty Johnson to Chief of Staff and announcement of his intent to appoint current Secretary of State Chris Nelson to take Johnson’s place on the Public Utilities Commission. Additionally I wanted to look at what the election means in terms of change in the leadership and management of South Dakota Government. Both subjects are combined in this what I expect will be a lengthy post.

From the outset, I have known Dennis Daugaard for 15 years, have worked with him on his political campaigns and learned from him. He is of the highest character. Dennis Daugaard is easy to like. Based on 14 years in public office we don’t know all that much about him. During his quest for out State’s highest office over the past 3 years I never had a sense of his vision and consequently expected little change from the passive Round’s administration. Much of his campaign was spent on his biography, compelling personal story and South Dakota work ethic.

In my experience, you have activist Governors or passive ones. Think Kneip (activist), Wollman (passive – served 6 months), Janklow (activist), Mickelson (both active and passive), Miller (passive – a little under 2 years) Janklow (activist), Rounds (passive to the point of caretaker though very high public approval ratings).

Sidebar – Ron Volesky when he was a candidate for Governor in 2006, in his stump speech asked his listeners to take out pen and paper and write down three accomplishments of Mike Rounds’ administration. A pretty good test I think for any Governor.

In retrospect based on events and support that Dennis Daugaard had, I expected more of the Rounds’ passivity. Daugaard had Mike Rounds’ endorsement, the support of the Pierre establishment, and Round’s inner circle and the extended regular GOP establishment. Compound that with a three year run up to the Primary. What insiders, high level State appointees, or contractors were going to go somewhere else three years out? The Daugaard campaign was well organized and executed. The fact that Jason Glodt, a former SD Party ED and Governor Rounds’ inside political guy was involved gave the Daugaard inside access to the party apparatus.

The Lt. Governor talked conservative, is against raising taxes, pro gun, and pro life – all requisite Republican primary voter positions. The DD campaign raised over a million dollars early on and basically both in the primary and general election ran as the front runner, saying little, avoiding controversy, really just a run out the clock campaign. Compound these advantages with a personality that is easy to like and a great work ethic, it was a winning combination.
Dennis Daugaard received over 50% of the vote in a five way primary and winning in a landslide in the general election.

Daugaard threaded the needle in his support of Rounds and stating his own positions. During the primary he denied there was a budget crisis or even a big problem that we could not grow out of. During the general election campaign he continued with this line of response offering little more specifics except to say that he would not spend money that he did not have. Only on election night did he say he was going to work on the budget problem.

Consequently after the election, I felt South Dakota was in competent hands but had little expectation of much change.

The reorganization of the Governor’s office staff, the dismissal of about one half of Governor Rounds’ cabinet, and the appointments of Dusty Johnson and Chris has altered my opinion.

Dennis Daugaard may be more of an Activist Governor.

Sidebar – for another look at gubernatorial management style see this recent article by Bob Mercer.

Dusty Johnson – I have been involved with South Dakota government and politics for just over thirty years, with the exception of Bill Janklow there has not been a more completed policy package than Dusty Johnson.

Disclaimer – I have known Dusty for over 15 years since he was Chairman of the South Dakota Teen Age Republican organization. I was one of the people who encouraged him to seek the Public Utilities Commission seat in 2004, and have advised and worked with him on both his Statewide campaigns.

Dusty is extremely smart and bright but is no egghead. He plain just gets it! He is balanced and fair, analyzes and does not jump to conclusions. Dennis Daugaard made a great selection in Dusty. There has been discussion and speculation that Johnson might be sidetracking his career in elected office, but this was not an overriding consideration in his accepting the Governor’s request. Dusty is not in this for personal fame or gain. He wants to make a difference! He understands managing policy for 10 activist agencies and divisions (including Economic Development, Game Fish & Parks, Environment and Natural Resources, Commerce, and Agriculture among others) for the Governor is a far broader portfolio than the Utilities Commission. Dennis Daugaard could not have made a better pick.

Chris Nelson – I have know and worked (to varying degrees) with Chris Nelson also for about 16 years. He was Director of Elections in the Secretary of State’s office when I served as Party Chairman as well as an outstanding candidate for Statewide office in 2002. I have not always agreed with Chris but he is always consistent. He has two outstanding traits; he is always faithful to the law and he is focused. While I agree that there is appearance of the GOP playing musical chairs on the Second Floor of the Capitol, in this case the Governor elect could not have made a better choice. Chris Nelson will be an outstanding Commissioner (fair and balanced one) and a good candidate for his Party.

Note – there has been a lot of carping that someone qualified was not named. Horse puckey – since when is qualifications an issue. Was Laska Schoenfelder, the Davison County Register of Deeds qualified? Or Jim Burg a farmer, Pam Nelson a former legislator and self described consumer activist qualified? Ken Stofferahn? Get over it. With the possible exception of Bob Sahr who is an accomplished Attorney, few are qualified the first day on the job. Chris Nelson will be outstanding.

I note the Secretary of State’s remark upon his appointment that he recognizes the important balance between the consumer and consistently reliable service that can only be provided by vibrant utilities.

With these two appointments, Dennis Daugaard shows thought and action and I applaud him.

I am a little more circumspect about his office reorganization but because of the actions noted above give him more than a big Straight Talk Benefit of the Doubt.

It is now well known that the Governor elect has decided to become hands on CEO Governor. He has formed what is essentially a governing council. The Chairman of his Transition Committee is Jeff Erickson, who it appears suggested the Governor elect adopt a management organization more similar that is found in the private sector. In effect there will now be five or six persons doing what previously one or two were doing. How this provides for better government I am unsure, maybe even doubtful, but Governor Daugaard was elected and is entitled to shape his administration to his liking and as said previously deserves the benefit of doubt. (I certainly don’t see the efficiency and any cost savings.) The proof is in the government.

It will be interesting to see how it works out with the Lieutenant Governor Matt Michaels also now going full time.

There has been criticism of Tony Venhuizen, Daugaard’s son in law serving on the management committee. Tony provides pluses and minuses. The minuses are the political; the Governor elect has noted that there would be criticism. On the plus side Tony is extremely bright and energetic, and experienced. He served on the Board of Regents for five years and did a clerkship in a rural Judicial Circuit with Judge Tim Bjorkman in Salem and Mitchell. Tony also managed the Daugaard campaign. No one seriously believes Tony is not capable of managing his portfolio.

Overall Dennis Daugaard is off to a decisive, speedy and first class start.

Endbar – Governor Rounds will give his Budget address this coming week. News reports are that it will be an austere budget. The Governor elect has indicated that he plans to offer his own budget. What similarities there are will be interesting. Several months ago Governor Rounds asked his Cabinet Secretaries to look for cuts. Times being tough and revenues not meeting projections have been the case for the past couple of budget cycles. Thus it is interesting (and perhaps cynical of me) that Governor Rounds is now looking for cuts when he will not be governing with reduced expenditures. Throughout the Rounds’ Administration we have been operating with what Governor Rounds has termed a structural deficit (an interesting phrase).

Festival of Lights

Straight Talk Commentary – Chanukah is here, my third favorite holiday ((1) Passover (2) Thanksgiving). Following is the thought provoking holiday message by Israeli Statesman Yoram Ettinger.

As Ambassador Ettinger refers to our National motto, “In God We Trust.” I read recently that the essence of our Nation (The United States of America) can be found succinctly on our coinage. As Ettinger points out tshe message of the Macabees suggests the divine providence of America.

Like Passover, Chanukah is a Freedom holiday.

Chanukah 2010 Guide for the Perplexed

By:Yoram Ettinger

December 1, 2010

1.George Washington first learned of Chanukkah while at Valley Forge,Pennsylvania, 1778: "Perhaps we are not as lost as our enemies would have us believe. I rejoice in the Maccabees' success, though it is long past...It pleases me to think that miracles still happen."

2. "In God We Trust" was inspired, also, by the Maccabees’ battle cry, which adopted Moses battle cry against the builders of the Golden Calf. A literal translation of Moses' battle cry is “Whoever trusts G-D; join me!

3. The Maccabees' sacrifice and political-incorrectness inspired PatrickHenry's "Give me liberty or give me death" and New Hampshire's "Live Free or Die." The Maccabees followed in the footsteps of Abraham, Phineas the High Priest, Joshua & Calev, King David and Elijah the Prophet, who walked against the grain, in defiance of the establishment and conventional wisdom.

4. Inspiration to Benjamin Franklin's "Rebellion against Tyrants isobedience to God." The Maccabees were a tiny minority of “rebels” -condemned by the "loyalists/pragmatists" - rising against an oppressive super-power. They were condemned, by the Jewish establishment, as "enemies of peace" and "extremists." They prevailed due to their principle-driven, determined and can-do state-of-mind and adherence to roots and long-term vision against any odds. They demonstrated the victory of the few over the many, right over wrong, moral over immoral, truth over lies, faith over cynicism and opportunism. The Maccabees became a role-model for the US'Founding Fathers, including Paul Revere (who was referred to as a "modern day Maccabee") and the organizers of the Boston Tea Party. They realized that no free lunches were available for freedom-seeking nations.

5. "Chanukah has a special significance in Montana these days. In Billings in 1993, vandals broke windows in homes that were displaying menorahs. In a response organized by local church leaders, more than 10,000 of the city residents and shopkeepers put make-shift menorahs in their own windows, to protect the city’s three dozen or so Jewish families. The vandalism stopped" (New York Times, Dec. 4, 2009, Eric Stern, senior counselor to Gov. Brian Schweitzer).

6. Historical context Alexander The Great - who held Judaism in high esteem and whose Egyptian heir, Ptolemy II, translated the Torah to Greek - died in 323BCE following 12 glorious years. Consequently, the Greek Empire disintegrated into five, and thirty years later into three, kingdoms: Macedonia, Syria and Egypt. The Land of Israel was militarily contested by Syria and Egypt. In 198BCE, Israel was conquered by the Syrian kingdom. In 175BCE, a new king assumedpower in Syria, Antiochus (IV) Epiphanies, who viewed the Jews aspro-Egyptians and held Judaism with contempt. In 169BC, upon his return to Syria from a war against Egypt, he devastated Jerusalem, massacred the Jews, forbade the practice of Judaism (including the Sabbath, circumcision, etc.) and desecrated Jerusalem and the Temple. The 167BCE-launched rebellion against the Syrian (Seleucid) kingdom featured the Hasmonean (Maccabee) family: Mattityahu, a priest from the town of Modi'in, and his five sons, Yochanan, Yehuda, Shimon, Yonatan and Elazar. The heroic (and tactically creative) battles conducted by the Maccabees, were consistent with thereputation of Jews as superb warriors, who were hired frequently asmercenaries by Egypt, Syria, Rome and other global and regional powers.

7. The Hasmonean dynasty *Mattityahu son of Yochanan, the priest-led rebellion – 166/7BCE *Yehuda the Maccabee, son of Mattityahu – 166-161BCE *Yonatan the Maccabee, son of Mattityahu – 161-143BCE*Shimon the Maccabee, son of Mattityahu – 143-135BCE *Yochanan Hyrcanus son of Shimon – 135-104BCE *…*Mattityahu Antigonus – 40-37BCE

8. Key geographic Maccabee sites are located in Judea and Samaria: Mitzpah (also Samuel's burial site), Beit El mountains (Judah's first headquarters), Beit Horon (Judah's victory over Seron), Hadashah (Judah's victory over Nicanor), Beit Zur (Judah's victory over Lysias), Ma'aleh Levona (Judah's victory over Apolonius), Adora'yim (a Maccabees' fortress), Elazar & Beit Zachariya (Judah's first defeat), Ba'al Hatzor (Judah defeated and killed), the Judean Desert, etc. Jerusalem (beyond the "1949 Lines") was the Capital of the Maccabees. Are the descendants of the Maccabees "occupiers"in thecradle of their own history??? Is Chanukah a holiday of "occupation," or is it a holiday which highlights Jewish moral-high-ground in their historical land?!

9. The legacy of Shimon the Maccabee. He succeeded Judah and Yonatan the Maccabees, while responding to an ultimatum by the Syrian emperor, Antiochus (Book of Maccabees A, Chapter 15, verse 33): "We have not occupied a foreign land; We have not ruled a foreign land; We have liberated the land of our forefathers from foreign occupation." Thus he responded to a super-power's ultimatum to end "occupation" of Jaffa, Jerusalem, Gezer, Ekron and Gaza.

10. Chanukah's uniqueness. Chanukah is the only Jewish holiday whichcommemorates a Land-of-Israel national liberation struggle, unlike Passover (Exodus from Egypt), Sukkot/Tabernacles & Shavouot/Pentacost (on the way from Egypt to the Land of Israel), Purim (deliverance of Jews in Persia), etc. Chanukah is the longest Jewish holiday (8 days) with the most intense level of Light (8 consecutive nights of candle lighting).

11. The origin of the name – Chanukah – is also education-oriented.According to the first book of Maccabees, Yehuda (who succeeded Mattityahu) ordered the Jewish People to observe an eight day holiday on the 25th day of the month of Kislev, 165BCE, in order to commemorate the inauguration (Chanukah, çðåëä, in Hebrew) of the holy altar and the Temple, following Syrian desecration. A key feature of Chanukah is education of the family (Chinuch, çéðåê, in Hebrew). The Hebrew word, Chanukah, consists of two words, Chanu, çðå,(they rested/stationed) and Kah, ëä, (25 in Hebrew), which refers to the fact that the Maccabees re-consecrated the Temple on the 25thday of the month of Kislev (purging it from the idolatries installed by the Syrians/Seleucids). Some have suggested that the celebration of Christmas on December 25th and the celebration of the New Year 8 days later (January 1) have their origin in the 25th day of Kislev (which always “accompanies” December) and the 8 days of Chanukah as well as the 8 days of circumcision.

12. Holiday of light and remembrance. The first day of Chanukah is on the 25th day of Kislev, the month of miracles (e.g. Noah's Rainbow appeared in Kislev). The first and last Hebrew letters of Kislev – åë - equal (in Jewish numerology) 26, which the total sum of the Hebrew spelling of Jehovah. Moses completed the construction of the Holy Ark on the 25th day of Kislev, as was the date of the laying the foundation of the Second Temple by Nehemaya. The 25th (Hebrew) word in Genesis is Light (OR, àåø, in Hebrew). A Jewish metaphor for the Torah is light. The 25th stop of the People of Israel - on their way from Egypt to the Promised Land - was Hashmona (same root as Hasmoneans in Hebrew). Chanukah commemorates the victory of Light (Maccabees) over Darkness and Remembrance over Forgetfulness (the Hebrew spelling of darkness – çùëä – employs the same letters as forgetulness - ùëçä).

13. The origin of the name, Maccabee (îëáé or î÷áé). Yehuda’s middle name was Maccabee, derived possibly from the Hebrew word Makevet (î÷áú), Power Hammer), which described Yehuda’s tenacious and decisive fighting capabilities. It may have derived from the Hebrew verb Cabeh (ëáä, to extinguish), which described the fate of Yehuda’s adversaries. Another source of the name suggests that Maccabee, îëáé, is the Hebrew acronym of “Who could resemble you among Gods, Jehovah” (“Mi Camokha Ba'elim Adonai” îéëîåê áàìéí é').

14. Eight days of Chanukah represent divine capabilities and optimism. The ancient Temple Menorah consisted of seven branches, which commemorated the seven days of creation. The Chanukah Menorah has eight branches, reflecting the additional level of divine capabilities over and beyond human expectations: The victory of the few over the many and the lasting of one day supply of oil for eight days. Some have suggested that the eight day celebration was designed to make up for the holiday of Tabernacles, which could not be celebrated by the Maccabees due to their war of liberation. The shape of the digit 8 represents infinity: No end to divine capabilities to enhance human fortunes, as evidenced by the survival of the Jewish People against all odds. The root of the Hebrew word for 8 (Shmoneh, ùîåðä) is "oil" (Shemen, ùîð), which is also the root of "Hasmonean" (Hashmonayim,çùîåðàéí).

15. Chanukah-Purim-Passover. The heroes of Passover and Purim had nochoice but to defy their enemies. The Maccabees turned down the option of physical peace in return for spiritual assimilation. They refused to sellout the cradle of Jewish history. They were willing to pay any price for adherence to their roots, values and heritage. Chanukah symbolizes the victory of monotheism over paganism, conviction over convenience and opportunism/cynicism (sometime presented as "realism" or "pragmatism"), compassion over egotism, self-control and restraint over temptation and promiscuity, endurance over vacillation.

16. Seven Chanukah (inauguration)-like events: Chanukah of the Creation (Genesis 2:1-3), Chanukah of the Sanctuary (Numbers 7:1-11), Chanukah of the First Temple (Kings 1, 7:51, 8:1-11 & 62-66), Chanukah of the Second Templeand the Ingathering (Ezra 6:13-18), Chanukah of Jerusalem's Wall (Nehemiah 6:15-16), Chanukah of the Temple Priests in 165BC (Maccabees 1, 4), Chanukahof the After World. Some attach the significance of each such Chanukah to a corresponding day of the Creation

South Dakota Switcher

Newly elected District #17 State Senator Eldon Nygaard becomes another Party Switcher joining other notable Democrats who have become Republicans including Ronald Reagan, Phil Gramm, John Thune, Norm Coleman, and Dave Knudson.

Nygaard said in a statement about his switch, “I firmly believe I can represent my district's needs in Pierre more effectively as a member of the Republican Party." Nygaard is right.

Particularly in the State Senate Democrats are irrelevant. With only 5 or 6 members they can barely at best cover the committee work, where the heavy lifting is done. If you assume that 2 Senators will serve on the Appropriations Committee, that leaves only 3 others to cover the other committees.

To put in perspective and for reference the nine “major” committees are: Agriculture and Natural Resources, Commerce, Education, Health and Human Services, Judiciary, Local Government, State Affairs, Taxation, and Transportation.

The Democrats in their Senate Caucus will be clueless as to what is going on and powerless to shape legislation in any meaningful way. On a party basis (most committee work is not overly partisan) they won’t even have another Democrat available to second their motions. Further any hope of having an impact is greatly diminished. Dems will for the most part go to Senate Caucus and just wonder what the Republicans are going to do. – No impact!

When Nygaard says he can be more effective as a Repub he is not kidding! As a Republican he can at least get consideration of his bills in the overwhelmingly Majority caucus.

Sidebar – The Democrats got decimated in the State Senate for primarily one reason – Barack Obama. He was like the plague that just rolled out over the Heartland. Many Democrats never had a chance. The President and the Pelossi apologists are in denial. Independents and moderate Democrats who are the swing voters screamed “Change.” Given the dissension in the party ranks in the Democrat Caucus in the U S House this week, I expect you will see a few party switchers moving from D to R in that Legislative Body as well. Looking back; Scott Brown’s election in the Teddy Kennedy special U S Senate election in Massachusetts last January was the canary in the coal mine. The President and Congressional Democrats didn’t listen.

That covers Nygaard’s public explanation. I view his switch as a little more political opportunism.

There are interesting factors in play in Clay County. Prior Clay County Results - In the 2002 Gubernatorial Mike Rounds lost to favorite son USD President Jim Abbott 38.4% to 59.8%, in 2004 John Thune lost to Tom Daschle 36.6% to 63.4%, in 2006 Mike Rounds lost to Jack Billion 48.3% to 49.6%, in 2008 McCain / Palin lost to Obama / Biden 61% to 36.8%, also in 2008 (in the District #17 Senate race) Jerad Higman lost to Ben Nesselhuf 40.6% to 59.4%.

The kicker – in 2010 Dennis Daugaard lost to Scott Heidepriem 49.6% to 50.4% and Teri Jorgenson lost to Nygaard 46.6% to 53.4% (thank you Barack Obama) but the trend to GOP is notable. This trend is not lost on Nygaard and explains part of the reason for his switch.

I also believe that the 2011 Legislative Redistricting Sweepstakes combination Cake Walk and Musical Chairs also is a factor. Redistricting is a more complicated analysis that I will speak to, specifically regarding Clay County, the current District #17, and far southeastern South Dakota in my next post.

Has Her Opinioned Changed?

This afternoon after watching a the Vikings getting drubbed by the Bears special teams and failing on so many third down conversions without pulling myself off the couch, I started surfing. The Cowboys and the Giants held no appeal and then came across a CSPAN program I was unaware of: Turn The Table.

“Turn The Table” is a weekly show broadcast from the Newseum in Washington, DC. Produced by Politico the show is moderated by John F Harris, Editor and Chief of Politico. Each week the panelists are the hosts of the Sunday Morning national Talk Shows. It appears that the show is taped before each week’s respective Sunday broadcasts in front of a live audience of Washington types, media representatives, and what I judged were a smattering of students.

The panelists were David Gregory (NBC Meet the Press), Bob Schieffer (Face the Nation), Candy Crowley (CNN chief political correspondent filling in for some other dude (wasn’t Wolfie who does their show) and my lunch pal from the ABC Newsmaker Luncheon (ABC This Week’s Christiane Amanpour).

Sidebar – The moderator commented on Schieffer’s distinctive purple socks. Schieffer responded they were a statement for his Alma matter, T C U who is in contention for the BCS. Schieffer noted in this regard he is biased and had editorialized on the National Collegiate Football Championships. Worth noting is that the School of Journalism at Texas Christian is the named for Schieffer.

While watching “Turn The Table”, I was caught off guard by a remark that Ms. Amanpour made. The former well known foreign correspondent for CNN said that this week during our President’s Asian trip, the Chinese were openly questioning whether America is the leading economic power in the World.

I was startled. During my recent lunch conversation with Christiane I asked her about how she felt about China as an economic competitor to the United States. She answered forthrightly that it was a misconception as she did not feel that the Chinese viewed themselves as competitors to U S having the world’s largest economy. From her answer and the way it was delivered I believe she implied this was an American perception (as opposed to a Chinese one.)

Given her report of the Chinese assertion I wonder if her opinion has changed?

Change

The ABC News sales organization under the influence of Straighttalk's Senior Research Associate extended me an extremely kind invitation to their 2010 Newsmaker Luncheon Friday in New York City.

What an exciting and memorable day! The invitees included ABC sales staff, reporters, journalists (broadcast and digital) (including the “Talent”), advertisers, and the important media buyers. There were a little over two hundred persons in attendance. This outstanding event was held at the famous New York Athletic Club.

The ABC sales team knows how to put on a great show. Reception before a prime rib lunch with cocktails, beer (two open bars) and world class munchies with butler service included fresh shrimp and rack of lamb. As a Foodie I shouldn't forget to mention a lox and eggs breakfast at the “Stage Delicatessen” (in the heart of the Theater District), my Dad's all time favorite deli.

My research director has friends in high places as my luncheon seatmate was Christiane Amanpour, the recently coronated host of ABC's Sunday Morning, “This Week”. Ever the world class reporter Ms. Amanpour asked where I was from and wondered what my connection was to ABC. When she heard I was from South Dakota and, she immediately told me of her interest in the Female Faceoff in our U S House race. She said that she had considered doing a feature on the race on several levels but the story it did not materialize.

On learning of my political involvement (particularly on the GOP side), she intently (though courteously and with I thought a tad of indulgence to my unwashed views) pursued a line of questioning of how the Republicans, specifically, were going to deliver on their promises, to cut spending, cut taxes, decrease the deficit, balance the budget, conduct two wars, create jobs, and increase economic growth.

Sidebar – Her hypothesis was similar to one I heard on election night from CBS commentator, Jeff Greenfield who described the GOP wish list as a Hot Fudge Sundae Diet. Since I had been thinking about Greenfield's metaphor, I was somewhat prepared for my distinguished luncheon-mate's question.

We had a lively exchange. I thought I answered her questions adequately; the featured guest on “This Week” tomorrow will be Kentucky Senator elect, Rand Paul. I expect Dr. Paul will get the Hot Fudge Sundae Diet question with both barrels.

The Newsmaker Luncheon program was a presentation of reporting, analysis, and opinions from the ABC news team. The moderators were World News Tonight anchor, Diane Sawyer, and Good Morning America anchor and ABC chief political correspondent George Stephanopoulos.

The topic of conversation was the mid term elections, what happened, what it means, and where do we go forward from here.

Stephanopoulos said that it is important to understand the “magnitude” of the change. He reminded the audience that he was working in the White House during the 1994 change election. He said that in '94 the White House / Democrats were blindsided by the change in power. In contrast this year those in power saw it coming but either did not understand or under estimated the magnitude.

Stephanopoulos said The President is at least a “little” in denial. The effervescent George continued the President believes in his programs, but he seemingly does not want to drill down and figure out what caused the change. Stephanopoulos described the GOP win as a tidal wave that rolled across Interstate 80 changing many Congressional seats from blue to red. The GOP made significant pickups in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois. I liked the Highway 80 metaphor.

At that point in the presentation, there began a discussion about whether the two parties work could work together and effect compromise. The question came up as to the future of dethroned House Speaker and chief GOP villain, Nancy Pelosi. About 20 words into the subject, Senior Political Correspondent, Jonathan Karl interrupted with the announcement he had just received a text that the Speaker had announced she would indeed seek the Minority Leader post.

Sidebar – I wonder what Stenny Hoyer thinks of that? (Where do you get a name like Stenny?) Personally I thought Madame Speaker was going to resign from Congress within the next couple of weeks. Wrong about that. I guess she just loves the life and cannot let go.

Karl continued that the Liberals, pretty much those Democrats that remain want her to stay and they see her as the defender of their belief in Obamacare and the $800 Billion stimulus that has failed at meaningful job creation. At that juncture of the conversation, The Grande Dame of ABC News, Cokie Roberts interjected that the Republicans were in no mood for compromise anymore than the remaining Democrats. She explained that moderate and even conservative Republicans had lost primary challenges and while the Dems had tilted even further left, the GOP has shifted further right.

Sidebar – At my Research Associate's insistence, at the earlier reception we introduced ourselves to Cokie Roberts. I have always considered her the whole package -very smart, well spoken, and attractive. Mrs, Roberts who is the daughter of Hale and Lindy Boggs, Louisiana politicians (both were Democrat U S Representatives, her Father was the House Majority Leader and Mother also a U S Ambassador) has equanimity and the ability to ask probing questions to get information not score points. It was a thrill to very briefly seek and receive her thoughts on job creation, American competitiveness, and education.

Political Potpourri
Many other topics were covered in the one hour presentation. A few of the highlights –

The challenge to the health care law would work itself through the Court System ultimately reaching the Supreme Court in two or three years. It was questioned whether Justice Kagan would recuse herself from the deliberations and decisions as she might be conflicted having worked on the health care issue when she worked on domestic policy in the Obama White House.

The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not issues in the election.

The Tea Party Movement – What are there positions on the wars, free trade, terrorism, immigration? These are important issues. Do these undefined positions have the possibility to fracture the Tea Party and their coalition if there is not agreement?

Hispanic voters – There are 50 million. To which Party are they loyal? Are they persuadable by either party? How does immigration play into building a coalition with them? Related factoid – Harry Reid received 64 percent of the Hispanic vote in his race while in the same election Nevadans elected a GOP Hispanic Governor Brian Sandoval. The other very interesting Hispanic / Immigration fact that was mentioned was in relation to Florida Senator elect Marco Rubio. (You may remember that Rubio expressed “some concerns” about the Arizona immigration law.)

U S law treats Cuban “immigrants” more as refugees. All a Cuban has to do is put a foot on U S soil and they are admitted legally into the Country. This is distinctly and far different than Mexicans who just arriving in the US if they get caught gets them a one way ticket back to where they came from. Many are suggesting that Rubio is the new face of Hispanic Republicans. Will the Immigration issue trip him up?

Al Qaeda – There seems to be a change in tactics. Rather than mind blowing events like the World Trade Centers or the Pentagon, Al Q. is looking to smaller events like the two recent bombing attempts on aircraft, the Times Square attempt, or last Christmas’ underwear bombing attempt. It seems now Al Qaeda just wants to get on the scoreboard, they don’t need to be Headline News thirty days in a row with a Peal Harbor type event.

Even mentioned was how Americans this year have embraced Flu vaccinations. Children and adults are getting them, a very distinct change from last year. (Pharmacies are now giving shots. Either it is profitable or a great lost leader to generate store traffic. I think that the free market promotion may be a factor.)

Facebook and Social Media – In 2008 the Obama campaign owned it. In 2010 the Elephant took over.

Sara Palin – There was a brief discussion as to the extent that she captured the Tea Party crowd. Her endorsed candidates won 62 percent of the time (though she also endorsed incumbents, GOP nominees as well as Tea Party supported challengers. Stephanopoulos ventured his opinion that she would continue to be at odds with the GOP Machine and that Karl Rove in particular would be the he said to her she said. He did not think she would be a candidate for the GOP nomination in 2012 but said he might be weakening ever so slightly on her running. Stephanopoulos did say she could be a factor in who does win the nomination however.

As it concerns the official program, ABC News’ pollster (I do not know his name and am unsure if he is in house or otherwise) gave his summary of 2010 which at a minimum set the stage for voter attitudes. His thought was the most cognizant of the day. He said, “It’s the Economy.” He pointed out the high rate of unemployment, the average length of those on unemployment (the highest since the late 1940’s) and that three fourth of American households have not seen personal income growth in the past two years being the deep causes of voter discontent.

The pollster went on to say, what Americans most want is Security, Liberty, and Opportunity for Prosperity and they feel extremely unsure and threatened at the moment.

Thinking about the day, I saw an ABC News in transition. Gone were David Brinkley and Charlie Gibson. There was the venerable Diane Sawyer who had been a White House staffer for Richard Nixon (she was at times suspected to be “Deep Throat” during the Watergate investigation), whom I perceive is the transitional character to a younger generation of Stephanopoulos’, Karls, and Amanpours. Not only is the Talent turning over but so is the venue. Digital Baby!

ABC is delivering not just on television and radio but extensively on the Internet including their programs and video reports. If you have access, check out their IPad Ap.

As I reflect on sitting there thinking of change, I saw my daughter with her new leader, her other younger and bright colleagues, the wonderfully talented Catherine Sullivan, President of ABC News Sales. I thought about the changing of the guard not only at a communications and media powerhouse network but understanding in a very personal way that Change is inevitable (Yes I’m aging).

My Dad often told me, that the only thing that does not change is Change.

Tight as Dick’s Hat Band

In the South Dakota At Large House race, the intensity has stepped up this weak to fever pitch.

I am not party to any polling but based on daily charges, counter charges, actions by the respective political parties, allied groups, and independent expenditures but based on my observation the race currently is a dead heat.

Just guessing - both candidates are stuck on numbers in the mid 40 percent range (perhaps 44 to 46 percent). Throw in Independent candidate, B. Thomas Marking with maybe 2 percent (which could go higher on election day when those disgusted with both parties opt for him to express frustration over the status quo.) In most instances Marking takes voters from Noem. That leaves maybe 6 to 10 percent of voters undecided.

The Undecideds are the voters Noem and Herseth Sandlin are slugging it out over. They have to persuade them to get there vote. Most of the persuading is negative (not to vote for their opponent) rather than positive (why they should vote for me). Expect all Pollyanna beginning about Thursday or Friday before the election to put a pleasant reassuring face on the candidate just before Tuesday’s election.

In the meantime no holds barred. This week we had the food fight that even got a story in the “New York Times”. As posted previously it’s possible that the Democrats will execute the Social Security (let’s scare our Seniors) card the weekend before the election.

The South Dakota race is perhaps the closest House Race in the country. This week it has received extensive national media coverage. Noem raised more money in the last quarter than any other challenge candidate. There were extensive stories calling her the next Sara Palin, even internationally.

Besides capturing the undecideds both campaigns are using their advertising to mobilize their voters. Citizen disillusionment with President Obama’s policies (in particular the so called health care reform law, and the budget busting stimulus and jobless creation bill has increased voter intensity and produced a strong headwind for Democrat candidates. The fact the incumbent is not marshaling a majority vote and has not raised more campaign funds than her opponent is usually accepted as a tale tell sign of defeat. Incumbents should poll over 50 percent and in 95 percent of all races, the candidate with the most money wins.

This week it appears some one showed up with some money for the GOP as there are signs of increased voter turnout activity in the trenches. More than likely it was the Republican National Committee or the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee. As the race gains profile the national committees usually are not far behind. It is another sign the race is close.

I also heard, as a result of Kristi’s Hannity appearance and showing up on the home page of the Drudge Report, the donations are rolling in like a tidal wave to the Noem campaign. Certainly it has helped the Republican challenger regain her previous momentum.

The next 10 days will be a slugfest. I would not rule out an October Surprise from either campaign but if I were wagering, would expect it from the Democrat camp.

This is the closest race since Tom Daschle beat Leo Thorsness in 1978 by 14 votes, and 139 in the recount.

This race is tight!