Tight as Dick’s Hat Band

In the South Dakota At Large House race, the intensity has stepped up this weak to fever pitch.

I am not party to any polling but based on daily charges, counter charges, actions by the respective political parties, allied groups, and independent expenditures but based on my observation the race currently is a dead heat.

Just guessing - both candidates are stuck on numbers in the mid 40 percent range (perhaps 44 to 46 percent). Throw in Independent candidate, B. Thomas Marking with maybe 2 percent (which could go higher on election day when those disgusted with both parties opt for him to express frustration over the status quo.) In most instances Marking takes voters from Noem. That leaves maybe 6 to 10 percent of voters undecided.

The Undecideds are the voters Noem and Herseth Sandlin are slugging it out over. They have to persuade them to get there vote. Most of the persuading is negative (not to vote for their opponent) rather than positive (why they should vote for me). Expect all Pollyanna beginning about Thursday or Friday before the election to put a pleasant reassuring face on the candidate just before Tuesday’s election.

In the meantime no holds barred. This week we had the food fight that even got a story in the “New York Times”. As posted previously it’s possible that the Democrats will execute the Social Security (let’s scare our Seniors) card the weekend before the election.

The South Dakota race is perhaps the closest House Race in the country. This week it has received extensive national media coverage. Noem raised more money in the last quarter than any other challenge candidate. There were extensive stories calling her the next Sara Palin, even internationally.

Besides capturing the undecideds both campaigns are using their advertising to mobilize their voters. Citizen disillusionment with President Obama’s policies (in particular the so called health care reform law, and the budget busting stimulus and jobless creation bill has increased voter intensity and produced a strong headwind for Democrat candidates. The fact the incumbent is not marshaling a majority vote and has not raised more campaign funds than her opponent is usually accepted as a tale tell sign of defeat. Incumbents should poll over 50 percent and in 95 percent of all races, the candidate with the most money wins.

This week it appears some one showed up with some money for the GOP as there are signs of increased voter turnout activity in the trenches. More than likely it was the Republican National Committee or the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee. As the race gains profile the national committees usually are not far behind. It is another sign the race is close.

I also heard, as a result of Kristi’s Hannity appearance and showing up on the home page of the Drudge Report, the donations are rolling in like a tidal wave to the Noem campaign. Certainly it has helped the Republican challenger regain her previous momentum.

The next 10 days will be a slugfest. I would not rule out an October Surprise from either campaign but if I were wagering, would expect it from the Democrat camp.

This is the closest race since Tom Daschle beat Leo Thorsness in 1978 by 14 votes, and 139 in the recount.

This race is tight!

Kristi – Get On Message

In my previous post, Not Just Another Pretty Face, I concluded that the South Dakota Congressional will be a hard fought close election. It had been a little over a week since Herseth Sandlin played the Social Security card when last week Democrat operatives exposed what they presume is a character flaw in the Republican candidate. On Thursday KELO TV ran the story “Noem Not Proud of Driving Record.”

Essentially the story reported on the driving records of the four major candidates on the ballot in the November election, (Heidepriem, Daugaard, Herseth Sandlin, and Noem). Particularly to speeding tickets Heidepriem 17, Daugaard 12, Herseth Sandlin 1, and Noem 20. What seemed so egregious is that Noem’s last ticket was for 94 miles per hour and she failed to pay several fines, with failure notices being sent and warrants issued.

Understand that most political campaigns do some opposition research. Even the most rudimentary check their opponent’s positions and their background to varying degrees. For major campaigns like for Governor, U S Senate or House, professional researchers are usually employed to do the opposition research to find the hickeys. In these major campaigns, often candidates even have their own backgrounds and records checked to see what their opponent is finding out about them. If this seems a little unseemly, it may be but there is a lot at stake on the outcomes, it is not illegal, and it is part of the drill for a successful campaign.

Public records are checked, both civil and criminal. Besides driving records, property records, mortgages, liens, judgments, employment histories, divorces, and even visits to the neighbors. You may remember a couple of years ago when Democrat Senatorial Campaign staffers watched prospective candidate and former Lt. Governor’s Steve Kirby’s home to see pet groomers come to his home to tend to his dogs. Remember in the 2004 Senate campaign when Republicans discovered Tom Daschle’s declaration of D C residency on his Washington, DC residence? In my years at the State Party oppo research just came with the territory. As is often said, politics ain’t bean bag!

I can only imagine the light hearts and smiles in the Herseth camp when Kristi Noem’s driving record was exposed, particularly the failure to appear aspect. They had been given a gift.

Herseth Sandlin has been behind in this race, evidenced by both her campaign style and the polling that had been released (primarily by Rasmussen Reports). Stephanie played the Senior card at the Sioux Empire Fair and as previously discussed put Noem on the defensive. Then about 2 weeks later the driving records are exposed.

Sidebar – some may want to shoot the messenger, but it is newsworthy, and it is part of the campaign drill to help the media to its job. The Parties, special interests, candidate’s campaigns send out releases, talking points, blast faxes, emails, now tweets, retweets and on and on incessantly to push messages.

In South Dakota today we have just about lost our political press. I think the AP still has a State Capitol reporter and the R C Journal, the Argus, Bob Mercer, Tupper at the Daily Republic pretty much is the political press. With changing if not failing business models, mainstream media has little budget to do their own research. With high staff turnover and other coverage demands there is little time to scrutinize public records. So when presented with Noem’s failure to appear, it was in a word – Sensational.

When the story broke and confronted by KELO, Kristi Noem did the right thing. She said she was not proud of her record, was working to improve, and wanted to talk about important issues other than her driving record.

The Noem campaign and Republicans now need to move on. Quit talking about driving records, theirs and others. Don’t make this a two day or two week story. Democrats will try to keep ginning this story but the candidate has answered and must resist all impulses to keep talking about it.

What is happening is that Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has regained the momentum. HS is defining Noem rather than Noem doing the defining. I.e. Senior Citizens can not trust Noem and she has character flaws. All the while, Stephanie is running feel good ads appealing to the her Seniors and reassuring her prior voters who might otherwise be questioning her values that she is the independent voice for South Dakota and not the candidate who is on the political fringe.

South Dakota voters do not support the President and the budget deficits are the number one issue. This is the issue South Dakotans care about. Kristi must tell South Dakota voters that Barack Obama is taking our Country in the wrong direction. His $800 billion budget busting stimulus plan is not working. Stephanie supports the President’s wrong direction and supports and voted for his stimulus plan. In her advertising Kristi should look right into the camera and deliver this message with conviction.

Tell voters, real South Dakota values are paying off the mortgage for the future not adding to it. South Dakotans understand you can not buy prosperity. Tell ‘em.

Kristi Noem needs to get on message!