Sunday, May 8, 2016


The GOP has a presumptive nominee.

Without much doubt, Donald J. Trump will be nominated at the party’s National Nominating Convention in Cleveland this July. What seemed impossible to many last Fall has come to pass. It’s a real surprise Republican Primary voters have chosen a New York City billionaire to represent the frustrations of those who believe the American dream has abandoned them.

The Wall Street Journal described Trump’s campaign planned as a corporate takeover of the Republican Party. Take down each opponent systematically. Better than any candidate since Ronald Reagan, Trump is a media star that understands how to talk to and use the media and play to the camera. Throughout the campaign he overwhelmed his opponents and EVERY day grabbed all of the media oxygen.

How the November election turns out is still unpredictable.

Based on current national polling it is hard for me to see an electoral college map that works for Trump. However I wouldn’t rule him out. He has proven to be a salesman who can close the deal despite tactics and characteristics that heretofore have been unacceptable even in politics. He often acts like a bully. Repeatedly changing your narrative, changing your positions, and personally berating your opponents as liars, physically ugly, possessed of small hands and other body parts, and attacking opponent’s family members has not heretofore been acceptable qualities of a person worthy of the world’s most powerful position.

Just so my GOP critics don’t think I’ve gone totally soft on the presumptive Democrat nominee, her character is also unacceptable. I won’t go into her positions (at least, unlike Mr. Trump she had taken a few and made some effort to detail them). Though to date she has never been convicted of anything she is scandal prone. Her misjudgment of her use of private servers is the latest example. Her dual explanations of what happened at the Benghazi attack alone makes her ineligible to me to serve as President. She told the American people and the families of the deceased, the attack in Benghazi was the result of a video while during the same time period emailing Egyptian officials saying it was a terrorist attack. Just as a reminder it took place on 911, 2012 during the beginning of a Presidential campaign where the incumbent had told us we were safe from such terrorism, as we had taken out Osama.
The next days, weeks, and moths until the election will be an interesting study to me, though it has great consequence in how the Donald unifies the Republican party and what new directions the party takes and how they are implemented. The election will say a lot about the party as well. Most observers (though most have been wrong about Trump) are thinking the GOP may well lose the Senate and there will be significant loss in the U S House as well, if not the majority.

Keep in perspective Trump has attacked both Women and Hispanics both voting groups that many believe Republicans need to get votes from. Trump though has tapped a new American electorate with a nationalistic theme wanting to put America First again and wanting to bring jobs back to America. This sounds a lot like Isolationism and Protectionism, both views that have hurt our nation in the past and are not right for our country now.  Trump talks of changes in the role of our foreign, military, and trade policies. These changes will remake the Republican Party. I’ll leave the discussion of social policy to others as the presumptive GOP nominee changes his positions depending on to whom he is talking, where he is talking and when he is talking.

Just a note – The first casualties of a trade war will be the American Farmers.

I suppose I’ve been Trumped because he does keep telling us not to worry, he will Make America Great Again. Oh and by the way he is going to make everything so great, he will pay off the national debt in eight years.

Long Endbar – Since I don’t post much these days – Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders play the class warfare card all the time, but they are wrong about the problem. It is not the greedy Wall Street 1 percent and the 99 percent. It is about the widening income gap between the 20 percent and the 80 percent. The 20 percent of households in America economically are doing well. The 80 percent of households are falling behind. What distinguishes the difference is not class. It is Education, Family Units, and Self Reliance.

To my earlier point about trade protectionism: Like it or not we have a global economy. No laws or President are going to change that. Transportation and communications technologies have changed it. We should not shun the global economy but embrace it. America should do what America does best (and our free market economic system allows us to do) – Innovate. Michael Bloomberg (don’t shoot the messenger but he knows something about innovation and free markets) says it well:

"Think about the global economy. For the first time in human history, the majority of people in the developed world are being asked to make a living with their minds, rather than their muscles. For 3,000 years, humankind had an economy based on farming: Till the soil, plant the seed, harvest the crop. It was hard to do, but fairly easy to learn. Then, for 300 years, we had an economy based on industry: Mold the parts, turn the crank, assemble the product. This was hard to do, but also fairly easy to learn. Now, we have an economy based on information: Acquire the knowledge, apply the analytics and use your creativity. This is hard to do and hard to learn, and even once you’ve mastered it, you have to start learning all over again, pretty much every day."