Monday, May 13, 2019
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Remembering Dick Gregerson
In the past day much has been spoken and written
about Dick Gregerson’s passing away Monday night. Dick was a respected
community leader in South Dakota for over fifty years. He was well known, as
were his accomplishments.
To those who knew him he had a great sense of
humor.
His humor is the centerpiece of one of my best
political stories.
In 1985, Vice President Bush came to Sioux Falls
to campaign on behalf of U S Senator Jim Abdnor who was running for re election
in 1986 against then lone South Dakota U S Representative Tom Daschle. The
rally with the V P was being held in the old Sioux Falls Coliseum on Main
Avenue with a high dollar fundraiser at the downtown Holiday Inn
afterwards.
About a week before the event, the political
advance man from the Vice President’s office contacted me, as State GOP chair
to have lunch and discuss the political climate in South Dakota. He wanted
background for Vice President Bush’s remarks. I asked if the Minnehaha
Republican Chairman could join us. The advance man readily agreed. The
Minnehaha Chairman was Dick Gregerson.
At lunch, I explained the political climate was one
issue – The Ag Crisis. Since the agricultural issue was not on the national
radar, Mr. Advance Man seemed clueless and in disbelief.
At this point Dick stepped in to explain South
Dakota politics. He said for the previous four years he had served in the South
Dakota State Senate where he was the only Attorney, though there were many
Farmers and Ranchers. As a result, South Dakota laws generally are favorable to
the Agriculture Industry.
Dick said his District in central Sioux Falls was
the only one of the thirty-five in the entire State not containing a farm or
ranch. In fact he had a Zero percent voting record from the South Dakota
Farmer’s Union.
In the prior two or three years the Legislature
had empaneled a Joint House and Senate Committee to study and rewrite the
Criminal Code. Attorney Gregerson was one of only two (if I remember correctly)
Attorneys on the Committee. There were however many Farmers and Ranchers.
At the meeting when the Death Penalty was reviewed, Dick said he made a motion to exempt those working in agriculture
from the Death Penalty. He said without any hesitation the motion was seconded
with several members chiming in, it was a good idea.
(The motion was later withdrawn and removed from the record.)
Indeed he will be missed.
Sunday, May 8, 2016
Trumped
The GOP has a presumptive
nominee.
Without much doubt, Donald
J. Trump will be nominated at the party’s National Nominating Convention in
Cleveland this July. What seemed impossible to many last Fall has come to pass.
It’s a real surprise Republican Primary voters have chosen a New York City
billionaire to represent the frustrations of those who believe the American
dream has abandoned them.
The Wall Street Journal
described Trump’s campaign planned as a corporate takeover of the Republican
Party. Take down each opponent systematically. Better than any candidate since
Ronald Reagan, Trump is a media star that understands how to talk to and use
the media and play to the camera. Throughout the campaign he overwhelmed his
opponents and EVERY day grabbed all of the media oxygen.
How the November election
turns out is still unpredictable.
Based on current national
polling it is hard for me to see an electoral college map that works for Trump.
However I wouldn’t rule him out. He has proven to be a salesman who can close
the deal despite tactics and characteristics that heretofore have been unacceptable
even in politics. He often acts like a bully. Repeatedly changing your narrative, changing your positions,
and personally berating your opponents as liars, physically ugly, possessed of
small hands and other body parts, and attacking opponent’s family members has
not heretofore been acceptable qualities of a person worthy of the world’s most
powerful position.
Just so my GOP critics
don’t think I’ve gone totally soft on the presumptive Democrat nominee, her
character is also unacceptable. I won’t go into her positions (at least, unlike
Mr. Trump she had taken a few and made some effort to detail them). Though to
date she has never been convicted of anything she is scandal prone. Her
misjudgment of her use of private servers is the latest example. Her dual
explanations of what happened at the Benghazi attack alone makes her ineligible
to me to serve as President. She told the American people and the families of
the deceased, the attack in Benghazi was the result of a video while during the
same time period emailing Egyptian officials saying it was a terrorist attack.
Just as a reminder it took place on 911, 2012 during the beginning of a
Presidential campaign where the incumbent had told us we were safe from such
terrorism, as we had taken out Osama.
The next days, weeks, and
moths until the election will be an interesting study to me, though it has
great consequence in how the Donald unifies the Republican party and what new
directions the party takes and how they are implemented. The election will say
a lot about the party as well. Most observers (though most have been wrong
about Trump) are thinking the GOP may well lose the Senate and there will be
significant loss in the U S House as well, if not the majority.
Keep in perspective Trump has
attacked both Women and Hispanics both voting groups that many believe
Republicans need to get votes from. Trump though has tapped a new American
electorate with a nationalistic theme wanting to put America First again and
wanting to bring jobs back to America. This sounds a lot like Isolationism and
Protectionism, both views that have hurt our nation in the past and are not
right for our country now. Trump talks
of changes in the role of our foreign, military, and trade policies. These changes
will remake the Republican Party. I’ll leave the discussion of social policy to
others as the presumptive GOP nominee changes his positions depending on to
whom he is talking, where he is talking and when he is talking.
Just a note – The first
casualties of a trade war will be the American Farmers.
I suppose I’ve been
Trumped because he does keep telling us not to worry, he will Make America
Great Again. Oh and by the way he is going to make everything so great, he will
pay off the national debt in eight years.
Long Endbar – Since I don’t post much these days – Barack Obama and Bernie
Sanders play the class warfare card all the time, but they are wrong about the
problem. It is not the greedy Wall Street 1 percent and the 99 percent. It is
about the widening income gap between the 20 percent and the 80 percent. The 20
percent of households in America economically are doing well. The 80 percent of
households are falling behind. What distinguishes the difference is not class.
It is Education, Family Units, and Self Reliance.
To my earlier point about
trade protectionism: Like it or not we have a global economy. No laws or
President are going to change that. Transportation and communications
technologies have changed it. We should not shun the global economy but embrace
it. America should do what America does best (and our free market economic
system allows us to do) – Innovate. Michael Bloomberg (don’t shoot the
messenger but he knows something about innovation and free markets) says it
well:
"Think about the global economy. For the first time in
human history, the majority of people in the developed world are being asked to
make a living with their minds, rather than their muscles. For 3,000 years,
humankind had an economy based on farming: Till the soil, plant the seed,
harvest the crop. It was hard to do, but fairly easy to learn. Then, for 300
years, we had an economy based on industry: Mold the parts, turn the crank,
assemble the product. This was hard to do, but also fairly easy to learn. Now,
we have an economy based on information: Acquire the knowledge, apply the
analytics and use your creativity. This is hard to do and hard to learn, and
even once you’ve mastered it, you have to start learning all over again, pretty
much every day."
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Keep the Trains On Time
The
Daily Planet reports today that Senate Bill 60 passed out of the
South Dakota Senate Commerce and Energy Committee yesterday. Senate Bill 60
would set Daylight Savings Time as the permanent year-round time for the State
of South Dakota.
This
proposed law has not been thought out and is ill advised if not bordering on
stupid. Where are common sense and those people who say government is the
problem not the solution on this one? Standard Time is one great example of
where government actually works.
This is the explanation of
Standard Time from Wikipedia: Standard
time is the synchronization of clocks within a geographical area or
region to a single time standard, rather than using solar time or a locally
chosen meridian (longitude) to establish a local time mean time standard.
Historically, the concept was established during the 19th century to aid
weather forecasting and train travel. Applied globally in the 20th century, the
geographical areas became extended around evenly spaced meridians into time
zones which (usually) centered on them. The standard time set in each time zone
has come to be defined in terms of offsets from Universal Time.
In 1966 a Federal Daylight Savings Time law was adopted across
the United States. I don’t know if there was a time limit or not (someone can
check me out) but I seem to recall that States either had to opt in or opt out.
I believe that Indiana and Arizona in the Continental 48 States chose not to
adopt federal daylight time. My recollection is the start and stop dates of
daylight time were extended several yeas ago by federal law.
In large part Standard
Time was adopted so that the trains could run on time and there would be
uniformity for commerce. Local time was abolished during the mid to late 19th
Century where local clocks were set at noon each day (the time when the sun was
at it’s highest point). Thus each locale had their own time.
Changing time uniformity
in South Dakota would cause disruption of economic and social order. Having
time in South Dakota different from surrounding states would make life more
difficult. I am referring specifically to eastern South Dakota but the same
would be true in the West as well. During part of the year for example Sioux
City, Fargo, Minneapolis and Omaha would have different times than North Sioux
City or Sioux Falls, as would Denver or Cheyenne be different from Rapid City.
Many people work in South Dakota who live nearby but out of state. They would be in
different time zones. Schools would start at different times. How would national
radio and television broadcast times be affected? What effect would it have on
local tourism, for example where people are encouraged to attend events
(speaking locally) at such venues at the new Sioux Falls Events Center, Sanford
Pentagon, or Washington Pavilion?
There is an old adage
thrown around a lot in politics – If its not broke don’t fix it. It is Not
Broken.
Endbar
– While writing this it looks like I am late to the party and common sense
prevailed. It may? be moot as the full Senate killed the bill 17
Yea, 16Nay. (a majority of the members elect (18) being required). I am posting
this anyway.
Monday, January 25, 2016
Unpredictable Election
2016 Presidential election
sweepstakes is shaping up as the strangest I’ve ever seen.
Several factors in play.
1. Many Voters are mad!
They are anti establishment and want change from the status quo. This is true
of both Republicans and Democrats.
2. There is no incumbent –
an open seat. In the last Century with the exception of Franklin Roosevelt (4
termer, itself a historic exception) only twice has a party held the White
House more than eight years. Truman, we know that story and George H.W. Bush
where voters thought they were voting for Reagan II. Voters just get tired of
the party in power and turn them out. Thus this election is the Republicans to
lose.
3. Culmination of the
elimination of public finance of Presidential primaries. Candidates are opting
out of public finance and the associated spending limits, overall and specified
limits in each State.
4. The ability to take
unlimited contributions for candidate associated PACs.
5. New Media – Social
media and an abundance of cable news networks. Candidates reach voters in new
ways and campaigns can be organized without the need for an Army of volunteers.
6. Favorable voter opinion
and support is swayed more than ever by sound bites without substantive
proposals.
As a consequence
Republicans at one point had 17 candidates, the Democrats had an heir apparent who
now challenged by a self avowed Socialist, and now perhaps a Democrat,
Republican, Independent Michael Bloomberg.
So… What’s going to
happen?
Your guess is as good as
mine, but I offer a few speculations. Our country is very divided both right
and left. For Republicans to win they have to win a few of the big Electoral
College states beyond the Lone Star State.
To effect real change, you
have to win the election. Being mad doesn’t change anything. An Outsider
without some compromise is unlikely to change much or bridge the divide in
America.
On the Democrat side
Bernie Sanders is extreme and outspoken. He wants income redistribution and is
a pacifist. Hillary Clinton is scandal prone and for the most part is more
Obama.
On the Republican side
from the Iowa Caucuses thru the South Carolina primary there should be some
consolidation into the ideological voter camps. Far right self anointed Tea
Partiers who hate government and old line Conservatives (now branded as
moderates).
From my view Ted Cruz will
make some showing in Iowa. He has the endorsement of the Bob Vander Plaats and
thus the Christian Coalition. He should rule in Iowa’s Bible Belt of
Northwestern Iowa. Donald Trump has tremendous name identification. Trump’s
ability and willingness to say anything to keep media attention on him and off
others certainly is working. He is
riding high in the polls and we will see if this attention delivers for him at
the Iowa Caucus and at the polls. Does he have a grassroots
following that will actually turn out for him? After Iowa will the attention
still be focused in a positive way on Trump?
Who will coalesce the non
Tea Partiers? Will Marco Rubio pickup the pieces? Which other non Tea Partier’s
will come out of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina? Bush? Kasich?
Christie? Rubio? When these questions
begin to be answered there will be a clearer picture.
So I still don’t know. What
I believe is the most electable Republican candidate in the General Election currently
in the race is former Congressman and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Kasich will
win Ohio, a Must Win State for the GOP. He also would be extremely competitive in
big states, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and would make the Dems or others
have to work in states like New Jersey and Virginia. It is unlikely that
Kasich will get the nomination but he might get a jump-start in the Granite
State.
My personal extreme long
shot hope is that the nominating process goes to the GOP convention
in Cleveland in July where a deadlocked Party once again gives the job
(nomination) to Speaker Paul Ryan. Ryan is a Conservative who wants to govern
and understands politics and governing are about addition not subtraction. My
choice for the Vice Presidential nomination is Carly!
Bloomberg who may become
an Independent candidate will appeal to many Centrists. There is not much
chance he can win but his candidacy has the potential to help the Republicans.
If Mayor Mike can take just a few wins in big States away from Democrats, it is
theoretically possible the election could be thrown into the U S House of
Representatives, if no candidate receives a majority of the Electoral College. If a third party candidate winning Electoral College votes seems unlikely, which it probably is; Remember in 1968
George Wallace, the American Independent Party candidate, won 46 Electoral
College votes.
If an election is conducted in the U. S. House each State has one vote. Thus for example South Dakota would have the same vote as California or Massachusetts. The State’s vote is determined by a
vote of each State’s Congressional delegation.
Yes this year is
politically strange and unpredictable!
Saturday, June 20, 2015
2018 Election Sweepstakes
Based on
the current increase in political activity, I have been contemplating for
several weeks posting a few thoughts about what is on the 2018 political
horizon. One of South Dakota’s Top political reporters, Bob Mercer, on his PurePierre Politics blog put his oar in the water first. At Bob’s prompting
and since I have been thinking about the 2018 landscape, I thought this is a
good time to jump in.
It is
important to note that the primary election is in three years and much will change
before the primary.
First the
GOP - Since the GOP Lincoln Day Dinner circuit began last winter it’s obvious Attorney General Marty Jackley and Statehouse Speaker Pro-Tem, Representative Mark Mickelson are gearing up their efforts to win their parties’
2018 Governor nomination. I have spotted both working the political circles in
Sioux Falls and reports are they are both working to find and develop support across
the State. Perhaps more in the Attorney General’s case he has been working a tad
longer because of his longstanding fundraising efforts. Specifically his
General’s Club (fundraising for his political account) and the campaign cash he
raised for an almost non existent 2014 election.
Representative
Mickelson who I have noted in a previous post is as well connected
across South Dakota as anyone and is an able fundraiser, perhaps Goliath might
be a better word given his bank in his two previous Statehouse races.
When
discussing the upcoming GOP primary with my political acquaintances the other
name that continually comes up is U S Representative Kristi Noem. While I have
a hard time understanding why she would consider giving up such a secure and
important political position, my sources indicate she is serious and is going
to run. If being Governor is something she is possessed to do I totally accept
it. If she is doing it to serve the people and the State, I do not
understand.
Rep. Noem
is doing a good job. Defeating incumbents is difficult enough but given the current
state of South Dakota Democrats her position is secure. Equally important she is gaining influential seniority and sits on the (I love saying this) important
and powerful House Ways and Means Committee. From this point in time it appears
the Republican majority in the U S House is also secure. When asking why she
might want to be Governor, it might be asked if her desire to run for Governor isn’t
being reinforced and urged by her cadre of top political supporters who favor
the influence of a Governor over a U S Representative? (Or a Senator if she chose to step up to the
U S Senate and challenge Mike Rounds in 2020?) It might also be asked why she
would forfeit the increasing value of a coveted Congressional pension if she
chose to leave Congress?
I would
add that it might be expected a fourth or fifth candidate to enter the GOP Governor
primary. Will there be an extremist Howielike candidate in the race? Will
another current officeholder enter the race (read here Lieutenant Governor Matt
Michels) or a political outsider?
Both
Jackley and Mickelson are capable and serious men both capable of serving as Governor. Unlike many of these
primaries, these two candidates seem to be less dominated by geography. Marty
Jackley is a Sturgis native, has lived in Vermillion (USD Law School), Sioux
Falls (U S Attorney), Rapid City (law practice) and Pierre (Attorney General).
Mark Mickelson grew up in Brookings, lived in Vermillion (USD), and Sioux Falls
(entrepreneurship). The Mickelson family also has strong roots in Selby and
Pierre. I touched on it in my previous post but it should not be discounted
that both Mickelson’s father and grandfather served as Governor. The Mickelsons
are well connected. Nobody on the scene has the Mickelson political DNA.
If the
race has three top horses, geography may come into play in deciding the outcome.
For instance would Noem cut into important West River support? Kristi plays best on offense, not so much
defense. How would her campaign style contrast to Jackly’s or Mickelson’s. Jackley’s
campaign style is slightly more formal with people than the more relaxed style
of Mickelson. Kristi Noem’s primary advantage is that she is well known. Being
well known is essential but hard work can overcome it. That both Jackley and
Mickelson are out beating the bushes early shows they understand. It would be
foolhardy to forget Mickelson is a very successful businessman and Jackley was
a long distance runner and like a great race horse doesn’t quit.
Jackley
and Mickelson both have good political instincts. Jackley it seems to me is a
more conventional conservative that would be popular with S D Republican
primary voters. While Mickelson a down the line conservative is more open to
the important and growing Independents (who are generally conservative on
economic issues) who have the power to win General Elections. Keep in mind
that the Democrats have not won the Governorship since 1972.
An Open
House Seat – As Bob Mercer notes a Noem Governor candidacy would throw open the
door to the U S House race. When the federal seats become open expect lots of
action (think 1986, 2002, and 2010). Mercer speculates that if there is an open
seat, he considers State Senator Deb Peters a possible candidate. This is the
first I have heard her name in this role and it could make sense. Other
possibles looking at the race - candidates may be former Secretary of State and
current Public Utility Commissioner Chris Nelson, former Public Utilities
Commissioner and Governor’s Chief of Staff Dusty Johnson, former State House
Majority Leader David Lust, former State Senator and Secretary of State Shantel
Krebs, former State Senator Dan Lederman, Senate Majority Leader Corey Brown,
former Sioux Falls City Councilor and Commissioner of Governor’s Office of
Economic Development Pat Costello, and Assistant State House Majority Leader
Steve Westra. Of course there could be many more (and probably would be). You
might also find Howlike in this race as well.
The one
name I think may be a real possibility and likely an instant favorite is
Governor Dennis Daugaard. History shows the Governor would be very well
positioned to consider serving in Congress and winning a primary. Remember he
would have the GOP establishment behind him and tons of name id. Recently
Governors have taken a prominent role in these open seats: Governor Janklow in
2002 (he announced in February of 2002 for a June primary) and Governor Rounds
in 2014. Mike Rounds did the political Texas two-step and announced in November
(I think) or December of 2012 that he was running for Senator Tim Johnson’s
seat despite what Johnson decided for 2014. Rounds thus forced Kristi Noem or
for that matter any really serious candidate from getting into the primary. The
2014 primary was bizarre for a lot of reasons. Would Governor Daugaard as
sitting Governor announce like Janklow or Rounds? Or for that matter announce
he is not considering seeking the seat?
Open
seats are attractive to Democrats too. Would there be a possibility of a return
of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, an entrance by Brendan Johnson or perhaps a new
Democrat face? History also shows Dems can exploit these opportunities and win
these federal races.
Mike
Huether – Mayor Huether is the third candidate working already to position
himself for a run for Governor in 2018, all be it from the left side of the
plate. He is always busy planning his work and working his plan. In the last
few weeks he is actively touring the state. While I don’t think any Democrat
can easily win the Governorship, Huether is persistent. I am not sure a Mayor
from Sioux Falls who has worked in concert to host the High School Basketball
Tournaments to Sioux Falls on a permanent basis will generate the love. One trait Mike Huether has demonstrated is
his ability (despite his methods) of overcoming objections (the classic trait
of a great salesman). BTW the last great salesman who was Governor of South
Dakota was Dick Kneip, the last Democrat to serve. Kneip was a Dairy salesman.
Should
Noem’s House seat open up, given that Huether is not a fool, when he looks at
the polling he may in fact re consider Governor and jump into the U S House
race instead.
Other
2018 Actions and Collaterals – Given the forgone speculation two other races become
interesting; South Dakota Attorney General and Sioux Falls Mayor.
It looks
like Jason Ravnsborg who finished last in a five way race for the 2014 GOP US
Senate nomination is again acting like a candidate for office. I suspect it is
the Attorney General nomination but it could be that U S House seat and a
possible two step. Another possibility for Attorney General is Tony Venhuizen
the Governor’s Chief of Staff who is politically active. On the Democrat seat
for the open seat is possibly Minnehaha County States Attorney Aaron McGowan.
While Venhizen and McGowan are solely my speculations keep your eyes on them.
With
Mayor Mike Huether term limited in 2018, Sioux Falls Mayor open seat will once
again be a free for all. Current councilors who have Mayor desires are Greg
Jamison, Dean Karsky, and Kenny Anderson, Jr. Undoubtedly there are others but
I might look for the aforementioned Pat Costello to again look at running for
Sioux Falls Mayor. Clearly Development Director Darrin Smith is setting himself
up for another run hoping to capitalize on Huether coattails.
Like
Ravnsborg, Darrin did not get the message in his 2006 run for Mayor when he
even failed to make the playoffs. Smith subsequently resigned his Council seat
because his office was not as important to him anymore.
The
Mayor’s race could also attract others.
In all
events 2018 is starting to shape up. It will be interesting and perhaps even a
wild ride.
June 21 Post It Note - BIG Oops (just forgot) Councilor Michelle Erpenbach is also reported to be expressing an interest in the SF Mayor's job and it has been mentioned that Councilor Christine Erickson should be thinking about it. - Could be a crowded field.
June 21 Post It Note - BIG Oops (just forgot) Councilor Michelle Erpenbach is also reported to be expressing an interest in the SF Mayor's job and it has been mentioned that Councilor Christine Erickson should be thinking about it. - Could be a crowded field.
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